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News | Published May 12 2019

General Election poll: Brexit Party overtake Tories

According to a voting intention survey undertaken by ComRes, the Brexit Party are on course to overtake the Conservative Party in the House of Commons if a general election were to take place. 

As reported in The Telegraph, 20 per cent of those asked declared they would vote for the Brexit Party, compared to just 19 per cent for the Conservatives. This would lead to Nigel Farage’s party winning 49 seats in the House of Commons.

According to the results of the poll, Labour would become the biggest party in the Commons, by a margin of 137 seats, allowing Corbyn to form a minority government. 

On a constituency basis, a number of Tory heavyweights would lose their seats to the Brexit Party including Penny Mordaunt, the Defence Secretary, Brandon Lewis, the Conservative Party chairman and Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary.

Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan Smith and Sir Graham Brady would lose their seats to Labour.

Key to the outcome of this poll is who leads the Conservative Party. These results are dependent on Theresa May leading the Conservative Party at the next election; if another leader was in place the results differ dramatically.

The most stark contrast can be seen when voters were asked the same question but with Boris Johnson as leader. 

If this were the case, the Conservatives would gain seven points, putting them only one point behind Labour, and the vote share for the Brexit Party would halve. If Dominic Raab became leader, the Brexit Party vote share would fall from 20 per cent to 11 per cent and the Conservatives would close the gap to Labour to four points.

The chairman of ComRes, Andrew Hawkins, described the poll as a “disaster” and warned that “If the Conservative leadership contenders are not careful, there will be no party for them to lead.”

The poll was commissioned by Brexit Express, a campaign group run by Jeremy Hosking, a former Tory party donor who has since pledged £200,000 to the Brexit Party. 


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Authored by

George Salmon
Political Editor
@theparlreview
May 12 2019

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